SoNaRR 2025: Foreword and summary

Foreword

Foreword from Ceri Davies

Wales’ natural environment is not just part of our heritage - it is the foundation of our future. The choices we make today will determine whether future generations inherit thriving ecosystems and resilient communities, or face escalating crises that we could have prevented.

Our third State of Natural Resources Report (SoNaRR 2025) provides the evidence we need to act. It shows where progress has been made and where urgent challenges remain. This is not just a report - it is a call to embed environmental evidence at the heart of every decision, every policy, and every investment Wales makes, as we prepare for the next Senedd election.

The publication of SoNaRR 2025 comes eight months after the Future Generations Commissioner set out mission-based priorities and areas of focus. In this report, we show what has been achieved over the last five years and provide clear evidence of what that means for the state of Wales’ natural resources and the resilience of our ecosystems. While some progress has been made, there is still much to do. Wales is not yet meeting the four long-term aims of sustainable management of natural resources, and it is vital that future policy decisions are rooted in this evidence.

Climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution are not distant threats; they are here, shaping lives and livelihoods now. SoNaRR 2025 sets out what this means for Wales - across ecosystems, economies, and communities - and highlights opportunities for action. These opportunities are not optional. They are essential if we are to meet the ambitions of the Environment Act and the Well-being of Future Generations Act, and deliver a fair, sustainable, and prosperous Wales.

Our nation stands at a critical moment. We are one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world, with almost one in five species at risk of extinction. Climate change is already impacting every ecosystem, reducing resilience and amplifying risks from other pressures. Recent storms and droughts in 2025 are stark reminders that these impacts are here, now. Pollution from wastewater, transport, and agriculture also continues to compromise all water resources and their ecosystems.

Yet there are opportunities for change. The Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme, launching in January 2026, for example marks a step change in how agricultural land is managed - supporting food production alongside caring for the environment, tackling climate change, and building resilience. This is the kind of bold, integrated approach we need across all sectors.

Targets and policies grounded in this evidence can create momentum, drive accountability, and ensure that every sector plays its part. Without them, we risk deferring action and leaving our future to chance. The decisions made in the coming months will echo for decades. They will shape the Wales our children and grandchildren call home.

This is a pivotal moment. We have the tools, the knowledge, and the legislative framework to lead the way. What we need now is the will to act, and to do so boldly and decisively. SoNaRR 2025 is here to inform that action. Let’s use it to build a Wales where natural resources are managed sustainably, communities thrive, and future generations look back knowing we made the right choices.

Introduction

This is Wales’ third State of Natural Resources Report (SoNaRR), required under the Welsh Environment Act 2016.

In 2016 we published the first SoNaRR as our understanding of the implications of the Environment Act were being developed. The second SoNaRR was published during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and was the first time we used the four aims of sustainable management of natural resources to focus our assessment.

Since then, the evidence has grown to describe the extent of the nature and climate emergencies. The effects of these crises have been seen across the globe and here in Wales with most recently the storms and drought of 2025.

SoNaRR 2025 is the latest in a series of Welsh, UK and global assessments of the status and trends of natural resources. It looks at the risks those trends pose to our ecosystems and to the long-term social, cultural and economic well-being of Wales, in terms defined by the Well-Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. A summary of our findings and key messages is provided below.

Summary

Wales stands at a critical moment as our economy continues to degrade the natural resources that underpin our health, security, and prosperity. Wales is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world, with almost 1 out of 5 species at risk of extinction. Climate change is already impacting on all ecosystems within Wales, reducing ecosystem resilience and intensifying risks from other pressures. Pollution from wastewater, towns and cities, transport, agriculture and abandoned mines is compromising freshwater ecosystems. Only 40% of water bodies achieve good overall status. These pressures cascade from rivers, lakes and groundwaters into estuarine and marine environments, threatening biodiversity and coastal resilience.

There is an urgent need for climate action, both mitigation and adaptation, to create a Wales that is resilient to future climate impacts. This consists of both adaptation measures including coastal realignment and the creation of diverse ecosystems, to emissions reductions such as through peatland restoration.

Air pollution has improved, yet nitrogen emissions, such as ammonia, from agriculture remain high, impacting sensitive habitats and public health. Legacy contamination from industry and landfilling adds further complexity, with emerging pollutants such as microplastics and persistent chemicals posing long-term risks to soil and water security.

Land use decisions are intensifying these pressures. The construction sector must expand to meet the needs of our growing population; however, development often displaces farmland, coastal margins, and urban green spaces, frequently in areas vulnerable to flooding. Meanwhile, Wales’ consumption levels far exceed sustainable limits. If replicated globally, our resource use would require more than two Earths, demonstrating the amount of natural resources we import, all accompanied by impacts on other countries, hampering the national Globally responsible Wales Wellbeing Goal.

Agricultural land dominates the landscape, yet the extent to which it is managed to sustain nature to deliver a consistent flow of ecosystem benefits remains low despite its provision of critical food supply. Given that the agricultural sector makes use of over 90% of Wales’ land area, some of our greatest opportunities to improve the sustainable management of natural resources lies in the ecosystems and activities across Welsh farms. Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), which commences on 1 January 2026, will support the delivery of sustainable land management outcomes linked to food provision alongside caring for the environment, tackling and adapting to climate and change and building resilience. It will mark a step change of approach in the management of agricultural land.

A summary of the evaluation of Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (SMNR) against the 4 national aims and opportunities for action is provided below.

Aim 1: Stocks of natural resources are safeguarded and enhanced

Wales is not yet achieving Aim 1 of the sustainable management of natural resources: to safeguard and enhance the stocks of natural resources. Despite the strong legislative and policy frameworks in place, including the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 and the Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015, the evidence presented in this assessment shows that our natural resources continue to be degraded by climate change, pollution, unsustainable land use, invasive non-native species (INNS), pests and diseases. Continued species decline, and poor water, soil and air quality, all point towards the urgent need for change.

However, this assessment also highlights areas of progress. Peatland restoration, air quality legislation, and the Wales Metal Mines Programme are examples of targeted interventions that are beginning to address long-standing environmental challenges. These efforts demonstrate that change is possible, but they must be scaled up and embedded within broader systems of governance, production, and consumption. The safeguarding and enhancement of natural resources cannot be achieved through isolated actions; it requires coordinated, cross-sectoral strategies that address the root causes of degradation.

Achieving Aim 1 will require bold action, long-term commitment, and a shared vision for a Wales where natural resources are not only protected, but regenerated – supporting resilient ecosystems, thriving communities, and a globally responsible nation.

Aim 2: Ecosystems are resilient to expected and unforeseen change

Ecosystem resilience is a cornerstone of the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (SMNR). In SoNaRR2020, the assessment under Aim 2 concluded that ecosystems in Wales are not resilient. The latest evidence from SoNaRR 2025 reinforces this conclusion: biodiversity is in decline, natural systems are under strain, and the landscapes that sustain health, prosperity, and culture are struggling to adapt to new and existing pressures.

Aim 2 assessment builds on SoNaRR’s robust evidence base, illuminating the pressures on Wales’ ecosystems and highlighting where action is most needed. Whilst ecosystem resilience is generally low, the assessments reveal some spatial variation. Upland areas tend to retain a higher proportion of semi-natural habitats, and score more favourably across resilience attributes. Lowland areas, which have been more intensively modified, show consistently lower resilience.

Recovery must be delivered across the whole landscape and our wider seas. Protected sites serve as vital anchors, places where nature still holds ground, but real resilience comes from making these sites bigger, better, and more connected. Maintaining and enhancing nature everywhere, including on productive farmland and within our communities, is essential. This landscape-scale approach, delivered through partnerships, is key to building Resilient Ecological Networks, enabling nature and people to thrive together.

Aim 3: Wales has healthy places for people, protected from environmental risks

Wales’ natural resources deliver immense health, wellbeing and cultural value. Our landscapes and ecosystems operate as a nationwide life-support system, protecting us from hazards, improving our health and acting as touchstones of our identity. And yet exposure to hazards and access to nature remain unequally shared and unevenly distributed and Wales still faces significant challenges in achieving Aim 3 and creating healthy places for people, protected from environmental risks.

Poor health outcomes linked to the environment continue, with chronic diseases made worse by air pollution, low physical activity and limited access to nature. The climate and nature emergencies affect human health, with flooding, biodiversity loss and degraded ecosystems undermining our nation’s resilience and well-being. Persistent inequities result in deprived and marginalised communities facing higher exposure to hazards, poorer physical and mental health with fewer opportunities to benefit from green and blue spaces.

Since the SoNaRR 2020 assessment, Wales has taken important steps to strengthen protections and improve its management of natural resources to support healthy places. These include laws to address air and noise pollution, and to promote nature-based solutions for farmers, investment in local flood-resilience projects, as well as commitment to the global ‘30 by 30’ biodiversity target.

To achieve Aim 3, this assessment shows that we need to prioritise nature-based solutions and equitable access to nature. For health protection we must reduce air, water and soil-borne hazards, and mitigate the impacts of climate change, prioritising communities where risk and deprivation coincide. For health improvement we must promote daily access to green and blue space, mainstream green social-prescribing and enable active-travel. To maximise the cultural benefits of nature and increase equity, we need to co-design, interpret and fund nature projects as part of ‘place-making’ so every community feels welcome and represented. This assessment shows clearly that protecting and enhancing natural capital is not only a cultural duty, it is preventive medicine, climate insurance and economic common sense rolled into one.

Aim 4: A regenerative economy, with sustainable levels of production and consumption

Our pathway of economic development has raised standards of living in Wales and across the world. However, in the process of getting to where we are, we have degraded our natural resources to the point where the demands we make of nature far exceed its ability to meet them (HM Treasury, 2021). Some progress has been made on decarbonising the Welsh economy. Nonetheless, Wales continues to face significant challenges in achieving Aim 4: “A regenerative economy, with sustainable levels of production and consumption”.

The transition to a regenerative economy is essential if we are to live within the ecological boundaries that define the limits of the well-being economy. As highlighted by the Future Generations Commissioner, economic policies, incentives and investments all need to be explicitly designed to address the climate and nature emergency, alongside inequality and retaining wealth within communities. With the right investment and skills development, SMNR also provides opportunities to create decent jobs, build community wealth, as well as a focus for all parts of the economy to work together to build back up the stocks of nature in Wales for the benefit of current and future generations.

Opportunities for Action

The SoNaRR 2025 assessments include examples of where progress has been made since 2020. They also identify actions that can help Wales achieve the SMNR and bridge the gap between where Wales is today and where we need to be to meet the well-being goals. The opportunities for action are clear and must be pursued at multiple scales:

• Local scale: empowering people and communities to adopt sustainable and healthy lifestyles, enhance green infrastructure, and participate in ecosystem restoration.
• Regional scale: place-based approaches such as catchment solutions including natural flood management, riparian buffers, and woodland expansion to address interconnected environmental risks.
• National scale: aligning political and policy frameworks with the climate and nature emergency, investing in skills, infrastructure, and innovation to support a regenerative economy.

SoNaRR 2025 recognises the uncertainty around which actions will deliver the greatest impact. However, the challenge is not whether to act, but how to act boldly and collaboratively amid complexity and a changing environment. Welsh leaders and policymakers must resist short-term fixes, yet the time for decisive action is now. Integrated strategies, grounded in robust evidence and co-designed with communities, are essential to balance competing interests and secure long-term benefits for climate, nature, and society.